Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Bullet, apparently dodged

Every time I get thyroditis I have an 80% chance of getting my thyroid back to actual normal levels. Which means, 20% chance of having to take meds for the rest of my life. Because I am, in fact, a geek, I multiplied it out to figure out that if I started counting the very first time I got it, and knew that I was facing at least four more or less full term pregnancies, I would know that I was looking at an overall chance of (0.8)^5, or of only about 33% of walking away from the whole deal without needing the meds. But because I am, as I believe I mentioned, a geek, I also know that these here events are apparently independent, which means that I can discount from my calculations those run-throughs that have already happened. So when the fun started in April, I was looking at (0.8)^3, or about 51% chance of getting away. Last week I took another set of bloods, and they showed thyroid levels back to normal. Which means that I got away this time, and that now I am looking at only a 1-(0.8)^2, or 36% chance of needing meds when all is said and done. Assuming I am only in for two more long pregnancies, of course.

P.S. I have been unplugged since Saturday. I got some sleeping and some ocean swimming in. And some sadness and some tears from being in the place I have only ever been to before while pregnant with A. And more sleeping, and a good long evening hanging out with the girls. And I need to decide when to pee on a stick.


Aurelia said...

Still up, silly me, so am whispering Niagara Faaaaaaaallllllss

Rushing water, run to the bathroooooooom

Sara said...

Phew. Glad the thyroid's cooperating.

And I've actually already been wondering for days when it will be time for you to pee on a stick.

niobe said...

Glad you dodged the bullet. But I can't help wondering if they are really independent events. Though, of course, you'd know better than I would.